Week 17 Predictions, NFL 2007

Assume home has 6 point advantage

* = clinched playoffs
$ = could get into playoffs

RPI        STD DEV       SOS       W - L    PNTS FOR/AG TEAM           Matt Vegas
--------  -------------  --------  ------   ----------- -------------- ---- -----
71.14074: (+/- 13.43421) 50.34074 (15- 0) (  551-  239) New England*  -13   -14.5
52.36566: (+/-  9.99173) 50.69899 (10- 5) (  338-  313) NY Giants*

46.00012: (+/- 10.70331) 52.26679 ( 7- 8) (  243-  337) Buffalo
55.42523: (+/- 11.03324) 53.55857 ( 7- 8) (  319-  291) Philadelphia  -15   -7.5

47.29775: (+/- 11.05618) 48.49775 ( 6- 9) (  342-  360) Cincinnati          -3
42.12551: (+/- 10.09907) 52.59218 ( 1-14) (  242-  399) Miami         -1

56.54650: (+/- 11.82462) 47.87984 (10- 5) (  372-  242) Pittsburgh*   -8    -3.5
42.37969: (+/- 10.49078) 50.04635 ( 4-11) (  248-  363) Baltimore

61.15310: (+/- 10.02900) 51.08644 (13- 2) (  449-  298) Dallas*       -2.5
52.84953: (+/- 11.81751) 52.64953 ( 8- 7) (  307-  304) Washington$         -8.5

43.26832: (+/- 11.00361) 49.13499 ( 6- 9) (  236-  324) Carolina            -2.5
52.02725: (+/- 10.84632) 47.22725 ( 9- 6) (  311-  239) Tampa Bay*    -13

49.41595: (+/- 11.49909) 49.54929 ( 9- 6) (  285-  287) Tennessee$          -6.5
62.90958: (+/-  9.67670) 49.97625 (13- 2) (  440-  246) Indianapolis* -19.5

47.67352: (+/- 13.91138) 47.74018 ( 7- 8) (  354-  355) New Orleans$        -2
50.93810: (+/- 12.15518) 52.40477 ( 6- 9) (  301-  323) Chicago       -9

58.02082: (+/- 13.13402) 49.95416 (11- 4) (  383-  262) Jacksonville* -4
48.55100: (+/- 11.37298) 49.81767 ( 7- 8) (  337-  356) Houston             -6.5

52.85056: (+/- 10.90677) 45.85056 (10- 5) (  352-  247) Seattle*      -8.5
38.34471: (+/- 10.60980) 48.87804 ( 3-12) (  215-  373) Atlanta             -2.5

46.85743: (+/- 18.09225) 51.99076 ( 7- 8) (  333-  410) Detroit
58.41100: (+/- 14.30192) 50.21100 (12- 3) (  401-  278) Green Bay*    -18   -3.5

38.30724: (+/-  9.04187) 47.10724 ( 5-10) (  212-  344) San Francisco
48.90395: (+/-  7.77887) 48.43728 ( 9- 6) (  382-  375) Cleveland$    -16   -10

54.32036: (+/- 14.22901) 50.52036 ( 8- 7) (  346-  289) Minnesota$    -3    -3
45.30296: (+/- 16.92008) 51.43629 ( 6- 9) (  298-  390) Denver

58.74514: (+/- 14.40359) 51.07848 (10- 5) (  382-  267) San Diego*    -9    -8
43.77696: (+/- 10.75106) 50.57696 ( 4-11) (  266-  368) Oakland

38.47895: (+/-  8.64762) 48.21228 ( 3-12) (  244-  390) St. Louis
44.86288: (+/- 10.40625) 46.46288 ( 7- 8) (  356-  380) Arizona       -12   -6

44.42481: (+/- 13.82982) 51.49147 ( 4-11) (  216-  322) Kansas City
46.32467: (+/- 10.01850) 52.32467 ( 3-12) (  255-  345) NY Jets       -8    -6


NOTE: Statistics don't work well this week because teams with playoff berths
will likely not play starters.  Vegas understands this and will likely
provide better lines for those games.  I disagree with Vegas on a couple games:

Miami is a better team than the 1-15 record suggests, and they're playing a home
game against an opponent that's not much better.  Miami on this one.



Standings

RPI        STD DEV       SOS       W - L    PNTS FOR/AG TEAM
--------  -------------  --------  ------   ----------- --------------
71.14074: (+/- 13.43421) 50.34074 (15- 0) (  551-  239) New England*
62.90958: (+/-  9.67670) 49.97625 (13- 2) (  440-  246) Indianapolis*
61.15310: (+/- 10.02900) 51.08644 (13- 2) (  449-  298) Dallas*
58.74514: (+/- 14.40359) 51.07848 (10- 5) (  382-  267) San Diego*
58.41100: (+/- 14.30192) 50.21100 (12- 3) (  401-  278) Green Bay*
58.02082: (+/- 13.13402) 49.95416 (11- 4) (  383-  262) Jacksonville*
56.54650: (+/- 11.82462) 47.87984 (10- 5) (  372-  242) Pittsburgh*
55.42523: (+/- 11.03324) 53.55857 ( 7- 8) (  319-  291) Philadelphia
54.32036: (+/- 14.22901) 50.52036 ( 8- 7) (  346-  289) Minnesota
52.85056: (+/- 10.90677) 45.85056 (10- 5) (  352-  247) Seattle*
52.84953: (+/- 11.81751) 52.64953 ( 8- 7) (  307-  304) Washington
52.36566: (+/-  9.99173) 50.69899 (10- 5) (  338-  313) NY Giants*
52.02725: (+/- 10.84632) 47.22725 ( 9- 6) (  311-  239) Tampa Bay*
50.93810: (+/- 12.15518) 52.40477 ( 6- 9) (  301-  323) Chicago
49.41595: (+/- 11.49909) 49.54929 ( 9- 6) (  285-  287) Tennessee
48.90395: (+/-  7.77887) 48.43728 ( 9- 6) (  382-  375) Cleveland
48.55100: (+/- 11.37298) 49.81767 ( 7- 8) (  337-  356) Houston
47.67352: (+/- 13.91138) 47.74018 ( 7- 8) (  354-  355) New Orleans
47.29775: (+/- 11.05618) 48.49775 ( 6- 9) (  342-  360) Cincinnati
46.85743: (+/- 18.09225) 51.99076 ( 7- 8) (  333-  410) Detroit
46.32467: (+/- 10.01850) 52.32467 ( 3-12) (  255-  345) NY Jets
46.00012: (+/- 10.70331) 52.26679 ( 7- 8) (  243-  337) Buffalo
45.30296: (+/- 16.92008) 51.43629 ( 6- 9) (  298-  390) Denver
44.86288: (+/- 10.40625) 46.46288 ( 7- 8) (  356-  380) Arizona
44.42481: (+/- 13.82982) 51.49147 ( 4-11) (  216-  322) Kansas City
43.77696: (+/- 10.75106) 50.57696 ( 4-11) (  266-  368) Oakland
43.26832: (+/- 11.00361) 49.13499 ( 6- 9) (  236-  324) Carolina
42.37969: (+/- 10.49078) 50.04635 ( 4-11) (  248-  363) Baltimore
42.12551: (+/- 10.09907) 52.59218 ( 1-14) (  242-  399) Miami
38.47895: (+/-  8.64762) 48.21228 ( 3-12) (  244-  390) St. Louis
38.34471: (+/- 10.60980) 48.87804 ( 3-12) (  215-  373) Atlanta
38.30724: (+/-  9.04187) 47.10724 ( 5-10) (  212-  344) San Francisco